Extreme Events and Production Shocks for Key Crops in Southern Africa Under Climate Change

Many studies have estimated the effect of climate change on crop productivity, often reflecting uncertainty about future climates by using more than one emissions pathway or multiple models, usually fewer 30, and generally much fewer, with focus mean changes. Here we examine four scenarios 720,000 per scenario over a 50-year period. We low-frequency, high-impact weather events yields in 10 countries Southern Africa, aggregating from nearly 9,000 25-kilometer-square locations. In highest scenario, median maize yield is projected to fall 9.2% for region while 5th percentile 15.6% between 2020s 2060s. Furthermore, frequency low frequency, 1-in-20-year low-yield event rainfed likely occur every 3.5 years 2060s under high scenario. also impact three other crops considerable importance region: drybeans, groundnuts, soybeans. Projected decline each these less maize, but varies country within country. many cases, losses are modest, bad higher current climate, pointing frequent bouts food insecurity region, unless investments made compensate those production shocks.